Do Any of These New Phone/BlackBerry/Tablet/Notebook Things Make Sense?

By Avi Greengart
Principal Analyst, Mobile Devices
May 17, 2006

Even in a world gone mad with convergence, the line between computers and phones used to be pretty clear. You used a phone when you needed to make phone calls. You used a PC when you needed to get work done. However, with beefed up mobile operating systems such as Windows Mobile 5.0, QWERTY keyboards, WiFi, and sliding or clamshell form factors, today's smartphones are edging into notebook territory. Meanwhile, subnotebooks have gotten even smaller, and routinely come not only with an Ethernet jack and WiFi, but with Bluetooth and modems for cellular networks (EDGE, EV-DO, or HSDPA), too. No carrier has offered a voice plan to go with the access embedded in notebooks, but connected notebooks can act as VoIP stations when used with a headset.

Avi Greengart Principal Analyst, Mobile Devices

Confusing the issue further are small web tablets like Nokia's 770, micro-notebooks like Toshiba’s Libretto and Sony’s just-announced UX Micro PC, Fujitsu's 2.2 lb. convertible P1510D Tablet PC, and a new line of Microsoft UMPCs like Samsung's Q1. You can't guess functionality based on size alone: Toshiba's Libretto (a full Windows XP computer) and HTC's Universal (a Windows Mobile smartphone available in Europe and Asia) are both about the size of a paperback book.

In addition to making voice calls, the key advantage a smartphone has is that it knows its place: a smartphone, no matter how big, is intended as an adjunct to a full PC. As such, it synchronizes PIM data (calendar, contacts, etc.) and a subset of documents to and from the PC. Users understand that there are scenarios - writing a report, creating a PowerPoint document - that do not make sense on a smartphone. The narrow use cases explains why the recent trend towards large clamshells such as the HTC Universal and Nokia Communicator cannot continue. The more ingeniously constructed smaller gadgets that fit into pant - or shirt - pockets will naturally have a larger customer base; once the restricted uses are acknowledged, portability becomes paramount.

Things are less clear cut once Windows XP is added to the device. There is no easy way to keep Outlook and Office documents in sync between two Windows XP computers. Third party solutions exist but are additional cost and often just don't work in real world scenarios (Sony may be trying to address this directly for the UX Micro PC; “Ultra Sync” software is an item buried in the spec sheet). Without synchronized data, the utility of a tiny Windows XP computer is limited unless it can perform as a true replacement for a desktop or less portable notebook. While processors have grown in power and shrunk in power requirements, the physical size of a subnotebook is still dictated by the size of a usable QWERTY keyboard. Individual tolerances for sub-sized keyboards varies with hand size and willingness to endure carpal tunnel syndrome; in practice, keyboards must be extremely close to full size for touch typing or cramping sets in when writing anything longer than a few paragraphs.

This leaves mid-sized devices like the OQO, UMPC, Sony UX Micro PC and Fujitsu P1510, which are all around the size of a paperback book, searching for a role somewhere in between full productivity and portability. Nokia's 770 Internet Tablet is a bit smaller still, but, as it is essentially a stripped-down Linux PC, it could be grouped in here as well. The P1510 and other tablet PCs have found niche vertical markets where the combination of ultra portability and tablet capabilities are needed (health care, consumer polling, warehousing, etc.). The OQO and UX Micro PC might work for vertical markets as well, except that they are priced and positioned as executive toys instead. Nokia's 770 shows the way for the UMPC - both eventually could evolve to be consumer-oriented, low cost, single-purpose devices dedicated to media, home control, or web browsing. The 770 is fairly close to that definition already; the UMPC has several generations of maturing to go.

The mobile device market is full of innovative new form factors, but the landscape can be decoded by focusing on two key elements: keyboard size and data synchronization. Beefed up smartphones with wireless broadband can replace notebooks on day trips, but are better as supplements for a regular notebook, large or small. Pocketability - not features - is still the primary determinant for how broad an audience a smartphone can attract. Subnotebooks can only get so small before their keyboards become thumboards, and the need for a single data store mandates that even the thinnest/lightest subnotebook be a desktop replacement. Therefore, mid-sized devices like the UMPC are by definition either headed for niche enterprise use or - with considerable improvements to current designs - niche consumer use.

This Spotlight was based on the report, "Big QWERTY Phones, Tiny Notebooks, and Things in the Middle," April 24, 2006, available to Current Analysis clients. The full report provides recommendations to vendors, enterprise buyers, and consumers.

Download a PDF version of this Spotlight.

View this Spotlight online